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The Verdict Library

The questions traders argue about, answered by running them on real market data — years of real options quotes, not screenshots. Every verdict is free. Members get the receipts: the year-by-year numbers, the variants that failed, and why.

All (12) Put selling & the wheel 0DTE & gamma Indicators How backtests lie
Partly Put selling & the wheel
Does the wheel beat buy-and-hold on SOXL?
+18%/yr
best rule, out-of-sample 2020–25 · −49% drawdown
No Put selling & the wheel
Can you make 50%/yr selling far-out-of-the-money puts on index ETFs?
3.5%/yr
best available on SPY at a 20% cushion
Partly Put selling & the wheel
Does rolling a threatened put save you?
−5 pts/yr
what a panic-roll costs vs simply taking assignment
No How backtests lie
Is a one-year backtest worth anything?
+46% → +16%
same rule, 1 year vs 13 years
Yes Put selling & the wheel
How much SOXL should I actually allocate to the wheel?
60% max
+11.9%/yr, −31% drawdown, 2022 −30%
Yes Put selling & the wheel
Should the wheel be run on single stocks or index ETFs?
−15% vs −20%
drawdown, index ETFs vs all names, out of sample
Yes Put selling & the wheel
Which tickers are actually tradeable for put selling?
6 of 12
SOXL · TQQQ · QQQ · IWM · SPY · DIA
No Put selling & the wheel
Does selling puts into a volatility spike beat the index?
+12%/yr
vs SPY +15%/yr, with a worse drawdown
No Indicators
Do the famous TradingView indicators beat buy-and-hold?
0 of 15
on SPY, 10 years, textbook rules
No How backtests lie
If you test 9,072 trading ideas, how many are real?
69 vs 58.6
exam passes vs what luck alone predicts
Partly 0DTE & gamma
Does a 0DTE gamma-exposure bot on SPX make money?
+$22/trade
GexRobo variant, 16 real-signal days, t = 4.4 · full verdict ~30 Oct 2026
No Put selling & the wheel
Does the entry signal matter, or is it all structure?
4 readings
agree: timing < structure
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