← All verdicts
Verdict: No

If you test 9,072 trading ideas, how many are real?

69 vs 58.6
exam passes vs what luck alone predicts

We screened 9,072 ticker-by-rule combinations against dollar-cost averaging. 281 looked good on the training years; 69 passed the untouched final exam. Pure luck predicts 58.6 passes. That is about 1.5 standard deviations — no strong systematic edge. Luck explains most of what a backtest screenshot shows you.

Tested on: 56 tickers × 162 rules, 15 years, train/validate/holdout split, regime-aware luck test · Published: 2026-07-29

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