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Verdict: No

Does the entry signal matter, or is it all structure?

4 readings
agree: timing < structure

Four separate tests said the same thing: the entry trigger is nearly worthless next to the structure (what you sell, on what, at what size). A realised-volatility trigger on SOXL cut the return from +72.6% to +15.6%. ‘Options expensive’ (implied ÷ realised ≥ 1.5) is the only trigger family that helped, and only slightly.

Tested on: Readings 2, 5, 7, 8 of the wheel study; real quotes · Published: 2026-08-10

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