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Verdict: No

Does selling puts into a volatility spike beat the index?

+12%/yr
vs SPY +15%/yr, with a worse drawdown

Selling fear is genuinely paid β€” buying the same names on the same days lost 15% while the puts made +109%. But SPY bought once made +186% with a smaller drawdown. And the β€˜timing’ was almost worthless: selling puts on every name that passed the quality gate, with no volatility trigger at all, did nearly as well. The money was leverage, not the moment.

Tested on: 1,261 chain snapshots 2019–2026, $50K account, pre-registered rules Β· Published: 2026-08-10

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